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Speculating on threats to my FEH orb hoard
There are four main potential threats to my orb hoard, namely my favorite characters. I'll go through each in the following sections:
Roy has five alts, and his last alt was his Bridal version in May 2022. That's long enough ago that it's plausible he'll get another alt soon.
Given that Binding Blade just got a New Heroes banner in June, he isn't up for an Ascended or Rearmed any time soon.
Halloween seems like an unlikely time for him to get an alt since they've been going hard into the dragons theme, but if they decide to fully canonize EliNini (unlikely), I suppose he could get something there.
I think it's unlikely he shows up in the Ninja banner, since they've tended to go for specific classes (wyvern riders, archers, myrmidons) and he doesn't fit into any of those.
Christmas is plausible given winter Cecilia and Fae. That said, that banner goes hard into the armor theme, and I find armored Roy unlikely.
New Year's is extremely unlikely, given that he's neither a FEH character nor a beast, though never say never.
For the "desert cultural banner" they tend to run in January, I could see Roy showing up if they do a Nabata banner.
He's already gotten a Valentine's alt, so no chance there.
Spring is plausible but unlikely - they have done several Binding Blade characters, but the themes seem to be coalescing into fliers and siblings, which Roy is neither. I could see Roy getting in as a family thing with Eliwood, possibly.
He could show up on a kid's banner, especially since he does have a kid design already, but I think it's somewhat unlikely for them to do Elibe twice in a row.
He's already had a Bridal alt, so don't need to worry about another one.
Summer is actually very likely, given that we've had Summer Lilina and Wolt. A mounted Roy is very plausible.
The August special heroes banner is always a bit of a wildcard so who even knows there.
The September special heroes banner is also a bit of a wildcard, so again there isn't a good way to predict it.
Eliwood has five alts, and his last alt was the child version, in April 2023. While they have done alts in such close succession before, I don't find it super likely we'll get that for Eliwood - especially because his Japanese voice actor, Takahiro Sakurai, has withdrawn from voice acting since March 2023 due to a scandal around his having an affair.
Blazing Sword's last new heroes banner was June 2022, so he could be due for a Ascended or Rearmed, but I find it relatively unlikely - he doesn't have a lot of different parts of his future left to explore. I guess they could do old Eliwood from Binding Blade, but that seems unlikely too.
I find him getting a Halloween alt unlikely for the same reason I find it unlikely Roy will - he's not a dragon.
Same goes for the Ninja banner - he doesn't have a particular class.
Similarly to Roy, I think Christmas is plausible given winter Nino, Zephiel, and Jaffar, though I think they'd go for other characters first. Since we've already had an armored Eliwood on Valentine's, it seems plausible they'd give us another one.
Like Roy, as neither a FEH character nor a beast, I think New Year's is unlikely.
For January's "desert cultural banner", again Eliwood could show up if they do Nabata, though I think it's less likely than Roy - Roy actually visited, Eliwood only heard about it.
He's already gotten a Valentine's alt, so no chance there.
As I said up for Roy, spring seems unlikely, and most likely together with Roy.
He's already gotten a kid alt, so we won't get another.
He was only a backpack for his Bridal appearance, so he maybe could get another one, but I find it very unlikely.
Summer is likely here too, given Lyn and Fiora, but I think less likely than Roy. Maybe together with a Ninian, though?
The August special heroes banner is always a bit of a wildcard so who even knows there.
The September special heroes banner is also a bit of a wildcard, so again there isn't a good way to predict it.
Dimitri has five alts, and his last alt was the summer version, in June 2022. It's definitely possible he gets an alt soon, given that Claude just got one and his previous last alt was the same banner.
The last Three Houses banner was in April, so I don't think an Ascended or Rearmed is in his future soon. I do think a Three Hopes banner with the lords is decently likely, and I bet Dimitri would take the Ascended, since we already have two Rearmed lances. (I think Edelgard would take the Rearmed, and Claude would be a 5*.)
I find him getting a Halloween alt unlikely for the same reason I find it unlikely Roy will - he's not a dragon.
Same goes for the Ninja banner - he doesn't have a particular class.
I think Christmas is a very likely banner for his next alt - it's had a 3H theme the past few years, why not pull out the heavy-hitters? Armored Dimitri isn't the most likely, but seems very plausible.
Like Roy, as neither a FEH character nor a beast, I think New Year's is unlikely.
For January's "desert cultural banner", it's plausible if they decide to do Almyra, though I don't think that's particularly likely.
Three Houses seems perfect for Valentine's, as a dead-dad focused game. A lineup of the lords, F!Byleth, and Jeralt seems good. Or they could do a Faerghus-focused lineup with Dimitri, Felix, Rodrigue, and Lambert, as a dead dad/alive dad contrast like Elibe did.
Spring seems unlikely, though given Ashe perhaps possible.
Kid seems like the most risky in the short term. They like doing these for anniversaries, and 2024 is the 5th anniversary of 3H. And Dimitri already has a kid design, which tends to help for these.
Bridal seems unlikely. We haven't gotten any 3H characters on that banner before, and they tend to be doing these as harem banners recently. You could have Dimitri + his endings, but ehhhh, then they couldn't have Edelgard, and I don't see them doing that.
He already has a summer alt, no need to worry about that.
The August special heroes banner is always a bit of a wildcard so who even knows there.
The September special heroes banner is also a bit of a wildcard, so again there isn't a good way to predict it.
Laurent hasn't gotten in the game at all. They'll have to get to him eventually, right? The last Awakening new heroes banner was October 2022, so we'll probably get the next one end of this year or beginning of next. They seem to be alternating between Gen 1 and Gen 2 characters (at least sort of?), and they last did a Gen 1 banner, so... Here's hoping? A Severa/Inigo/Noire/Laurent banner seems to hang together pretty well. Laurent is almost certainly going to be a demote.
I find him getting a Halloween alt unlikely for the same reason I find it unlikely Roy will - he's not a dragon.
I think them doing mages for the Ninja banner is unlikely, though perhaps possible.
They've done Awakening units for Winter here and there, so he's a possibility. He would be much like Artur, in a way, so I find it plausible.
Like Roy, as neither a FEH character nor a beast, I think New Year's is unlikely.
For January's "desert cultural banner", I think he's actually very likely, considering he's a mage and showed up in a desert. No idea what games they will do, but I do think he could show up for anything.
They've already done Awakening Valentine's, and with no canon father, I think he's unlikely to ever show up on that banner.
They've done Awakening units for spring, including Gen 2 units, so he does seem decently likely, despite not being a flier or having a family.
I don't think he'll show up for a kid banner, even for Awakening. It seems kid banners tend to get the lords and related, which he isn't.
With no canon love interest and not even a particular hint one way or another, I find it unlikely he'll show up on a bridal banner, especially because they just did all-Awakening. Maybe if they decide to do a harem focused on Lucina, but come on, that wouldn't be a majority female banner.
Summer is possible, given Noire. He'd definitely be a freebie for this banner.
The August special heroes banner is always a bit of a wildcard so who even knows there.
The September special heroes banner is also a bit of a wildcard, so again there isn't a good way to predict it.
Roy has five alts, and his last alt was his Bridal version in May 2022. That's long enough ago that it's plausible he'll get another alt soon.
Given that Binding Blade just got a New Heroes banner in June, he isn't up for an Ascended or Rearmed any time soon.
Halloween seems like an unlikely time for him to get an alt since they've been going hard into the dragons theme, but if they decide to fully canonize EliNini (unlikely), I suppose he could get something there.
I think it's unlikely he shows up in the Ninja banner, since they've tended to go for specific classes (wyvern riders, archers, myrmidons) and he doesn't fit into any of those.
Christmas is plausible given winter Cecilia and Fae. That said, that banner goes hard into the armor theme, and I find armored Roy unlikely.
New Year's is extremely unlikely, given that he's neither a FEH character nor a beast, though never say never.
For the "desert cultural banner" they tend to run in January, I could see Roy showing up if they do a Nabata banner.
He's already gotten a Valentine's alt, so no chance there.
Spring is plausible but unlikely - they have done several Binding Blade characters, but the themes seem to be coalescing into fliers and siblings, which Roy is neither. I could see Roy getting in as a family thing with Eliwood, possibly.
He could show up on a kid's banner, especially since he does have a kid design already, but I think it's somewhat unlikely for them to do Elibe twice in a row.
He's already had a Bridal alt, so don't need to worry about another one.
Summer is actually very likely, given that we've had Summer Lilina and Wolt. A mounted Roy is very plausible.
The August special heroes banner is always a bit of a wildcard so who even knows there.
The September special heroes banner is also a bit of a wildcard, so again there isn't a good way to predict it.
Eliwood has five alts, and his last alt was the child version, in April 2023. While they have done alts in such close succession before, I don't find it super likely we'll get that for Eliwood - especially because his Japanese voice actor, Takahiro Sakurai, has withdrawn from voice acting since March 2023 due to a scandal around his having an affair.
Blazing Sword's last new heroes banner was June 2022, so he could be due for a Ascended or Rearmed, but I find it relatively unlikely - he doesn't have a lot of different parts of his future left to explore. I guess they could do old Eliwood from Binding Blade, but that seems unlikely too.
I find him getting a Halloween alt unlikely for the same reason I find it unlikely Roy will - he's not a dragon.
Same goes for the Ninja banner - he doesn't have a particular class.
Similarly to Roy, I think Christmas is plausible given winter Nino, Zephiel, and Jaffar, though I think they'd go for other characters first. Since we've already had an armored Eliwood on Valentine's, it seems plausible they'd give us another one.
Like Roy, as neither a FEH character nor a beast, I think New Year's is unlikely.
For January's "desert cultural banner", again Eliwood could show up if they do Nabata, though I think it's less likely than Roy - Roy actually visited, Eliwood only heard about it.
He's already gotten a Valentine's alt, so no chance there.
As I said up for Roy, spring seems unlikely, and most likely together with Roy.
He's already gotten a kid alt, so we won't get another.
He was only a backpack for his Bridal appearance, so he maybe could get another one, but I find it very unlikely.
Summer is likely here too, given Lyn and Fiora, but I think less likely than Roy. Maybe together with a Ninian, though?
The August special heroes banner is always a bit of a wildcard so who even knows there.
The September special heroes banner is also a bit of a wildcard, so again there isn't a good way to predict it.
Dimitri has five alts, and his last alt was the summer version, in June 2022. It's definitely possible he gets an alt soon, given that Claude just got one and his previous last alt was the same banner.
The last Three Houses banner was in April, so I don't think an Ascended or Rearmed is in his future soon. I do think a Three Hopes banner with the lords is decently likely, and I bet Dimitri would take the Ascended, since we already have two Rearmed lances. (I think Edelgard would take the Rearmed, and Claude would be a 5*.)
I find him getting a Halloween alt unlikely for the same reason I find it unlikely Roy will - he's not a dragon.
Same goes for the Ninja banner - he doesn't have a particular class.
I think Christmas is a very likely banner for his next alt - it's had a 3H theme the past few years, why not pull out the heavy-hitters? Armored Dimitri isn't the most likely, but seems very plausible.
Like Roy, as neither a FEH character nor a beast, I think New Year's is unlikely.
For January's "desert cultural banner", it's plausible if they decide to do Almyra, though I don't think that's particularly likely.
Three Houses seems perfect for Valentine's, as a dead-dad focused game. A lineup of the lords, F!Byleth, and Jeralt seems good. Or they could do a Faerghus-focused lineup with Dimitri, Felix, Rodrigue, and Lambert, as a dead dad/alive dad contrast like Elibe did.
Spring seems unlikely, though given Ashe perhaps possible.
Kid seems like the most risky in the short term. They like doing these for anniversaries, and 2024 is the 5th anniversary of 3H. And Dimitri already has a kid design, which tends to help for these.
Bridal seems unlikely. We haven't gotten any 3H characters on that banner before, and they tend to be doing these as harem banners recently. You could have Dimitri + his endings, but ehhhh, then they couldn't have Edelgard, and I don't see them doing that.
He already has a summer alt, no need to worry about that.
The August special heroes banner is always a bit of a wildcard so who even knows there.
The September special heroes banner is also a bit of a wildcard, so again there isn't a good way to predict it.
Laurent hasn't gotten in the game at all. They'll have to get to him eventually, right? The last Awakening new heroes banner was October 2022, so we'll probably get the next one end of this year or beginning of next. They seem to be alternating between Gen 1 and Gen 2 characters (at least sort of?), and they last did a Gen 1 banner, so... Here's hoping? A Severa/Inigo/Noire/Laurent banner seems to hang together pretty well. Laurent is almost certainly going to be a demote.
I find him getting a Halloween alt unlikely for the same reason I find it unlikely Roy will - he's not a dragon.
I think them doing mages for the Ninja banner is unlikely, though perhaps possible.
They've done Awakening units for Winter here and there, so he's a possibility. He would be much like Artur, in a way, so I find it plausible.
Like Roy, as neither a FEH character nor a beast, I think New Year's is unlikely.
For January's "desert cultural banner", I think he's actually very likely, considering he's a mage and showed up in a desert. No idea what games they will do, but I do think he could show up for anything.
They've already done Awakening Valentine's, and with no canon father, I think he's unlikely to ever show up on that banner.
They've done Awakening units for spring, including Gen 2 units, so he does seem decently likely, despite not being a flier or having a family.
I don't think he'll show up for a kid banner, even for Awakening. It seems kid banners tend to get the lords and related, which he isn't.
With no canon love interest and not even a particular hint one way or another, I find it unlikely he'll show up on a bridal banner, especially because they just did all-Awakening. Maybe if they decide to do a harem focused on Lucina, but come on, that wouldn't be a majority female banner.
Summer is possible, given Noire. He'd definitely be a freebie for this banner.
The August special heroes banner is always a bit of a wildcard so who even knows there.
The September special heroes banner is also a bit of a wildcard, so again there isn't a good way to predict it.